How does Lower Saxony vote?

Students René Grollmann and Cornelius Heller programmed the Stockvote stock market simulation game. The aim of the game is to predict the outcome of the state elections in Lower Saxony in 2013. All students and university members in Lower Saxony can take part.

How will the people of Lower Saxony vote in the state elections on 20 January 2013? In order to answer this question, René Grollmann and Cornelius Heller, both students of social sciences at the University of Oldenburg, have invested over two months of work and programmed the Stockvote stock market simulation game. Students and members of all universities in Lower Saxony can take part in Stockvote and "buy" and "sell" shares for the parties registered to vote. Based on the trading activities on Stockvote, the students try to predict the election result of the upcoming state election as accurately as possible.

"Stockvote is based on the principle of the prediction market," says Grollmann. In most cases, this is a virtual stock market on which future expectations are traded in the form of securities. Each player starts the game with virtual 1,000 Stockvote dollars. The securities of the CDU, SPD, Greens, Left Party, Pirates, FDP and "Others" are available.

Grollmann and Heller developed the stock market game as part of the two-semester module "Political Participation and Experimental Methods" taught by Prof Dr Markus Tepe, Professor of Positive Political Theory / Political Economy at the University of Oldenburg. In the first semester, the students dealt with the theory and research methods of political participation. In the second semester, they initiated their own research project. "We read an essay about the 1988 presidential election campaign of George Bush senior, where the Political Stock Market was used for the first time in Iowa - the forerunner of Stockvote, so to speak," explains Heller. The prediction tool was more accurate than conventional election polls. These measuring instruments have also been in use in Germany since the early 1990s. "We realised pretty quickly that we also wanted to design a survey tool like this."

Over the past few months, the two students have programmed the game, set up a website, a Facebook page and a Twitter account and produced YouTube films explaining the game. What is still missing to make the project a success? "We would like as many people as possible to take part in Stockvote," emphasises Grollmann. The more active participants there are, the more accurate the election forecast will be. In addition, the imaginary stock trading is simply fun and there are prizes to be won for the best "stockvoters" at the end of the project - Stockvote runs until the eve of the state election.

Incidentally, the Iowa Political Stock Market had a deviation of 0.2 per cent from the regular election result in the 1988 presidential election campaign. The aim is to beat this - Grollmann and Heller are confident.