Predicting earthquakes reliably: this could become more possible in future thanks to a method developed by Oldenburg physicist Prof Dr Joachim Peinke together with his Iranian colleague Prof Dr Mohhammed Reza Rahimi Tabar. The scientists report on this in Physical Review Letters, the world's most important physics journal ("Turbulentlike Behaviour of Seismic Time Series", PRL, 31 December 2008). Both scientists conduct intensive research in the field of physics on the topic of "Formation of extreme values in complex systems".
Such systems include, for example, turbulence, financial markets or wind fields.

Based on findings about anomalous turbulence statistics, Peinke and Tarbar - together with their colleagues - discovered a new parameter when analysing several earthquakes. This shows a significant increase in value even hours before the actual earthquake. It also corresponds to the distance to the earthquake centre and the size of the earthquake as it builds up.

The research results form the basis for the development of a new earthquake early warning system. The research project, led by Peinke, is funded by a British oil and gas technology company. "It would be a great pleasure for me if our findings for early warning systems help to ensure that major earthquakes are better recognised worldwide in the future," says Peinke.

Peinke is head of the Hydrodynamics and Wind Energy working group at the Institute of Physics, Director of the Center for Environmental and Sustainability Research COAST at the University of Oldenburg and spokesperson for ForWind, the Centre for Wind Energy Research at the Universities of Oldenburg and Hanover. His colleague Tabar, a university lecturer at Sharif University of Technology (Tehran, Iran), was a visiting researcher in Oldenburg last year as part of an Alexander von Humboldt Fellowship.

Contact: Prof Dr Joachim Peinke, Institute of Physics, Tel.: 0441/798-3536 o. -3402
Email: peinke@uni-oldenburg.de