Observer-supported prediction of grid congestions and possible feed-in of offshore wind energy for operational grid management and trading processes


BMWi (FKZ 03EE3027A)


01.07.2020 - 30.06.2023

Project partners

  • Carl von Ossietzky University of Oldenburg – Faculty V – Mathematics and Science - Institute of Physics – ForWind – Center of Wind Energy Research, Oldenburg (Coordinator)
    Research Group Wind Energy Systems (WE-Sys)
    Research Group Energy Meteorology (EnMet)
  • Abacus Laser GmbH, Göttingen
  • DLR – Institute of Networked Energy Systems, Oldenburg
  • Energy & Meteo Systems GmbH, Oldenburg
  • METEK Meteorologische Messtechnik GmbH, Elmshorn

Project objectives

Wind ramps, i.e. rapid changes of the incoming wind speed and direction, for example due to front passages, cause strong short-term variabilities of feed-in power of large offshore wind farms. The prediction of such wind ramps is subject to large uncertainties. This makes operative grid management more difficult, causes or prolongs the curtailment of wind energy, necessitates rescheduling of conventional power plants and makes wind energy traded on the stock exchange more expensive. The laser-based remote sensing technique lidar makes it possible to measure wind speeds at several kilometres upstream. This allows wind ramps to be detected before they reach the wind farm. The goals of the WindRamp project are improved grid management and optimisation of electricity trading processes by means of i) the development and testing of an observer-based very short-term forecast of wind farm power based on lidar wind measurements, ii) the practical application of this very short-term forecast in grid management and electricity trading as well as the analysis and evaluation of the improvements achieved, and iii) the parallel development of the demonstrator of a compact lidar with significantly increased measuring range and better data availability for the extension of the temporal prediction horizon. In the sub-project “Short-term Forecast and Offshore Measurement Program” ForWind – University of Oldenburg is conducting a measurement campaign with wind lidar in an offshore wind farm to provide data for the short-term forecast. Measurement scenarios and analysis methods are adapted to the desired high ranges. Based on this data, methods for predicting ramp events with time horizons of up to 30 minutes are investigated, tested and validated. In cooperation with the project partners, the improvements in the application of the new methods in power trading and grid planning will be examined. The lidar demonstrator developed in the project will be compared to a commercial lidar device.

Specific contributions and objectives WESys

  • Planning and conducting of offshore measurement campaign
  • Processing of lidar and SCADA data
  • (further) development of methodologies for probabilistic minute-scale power forecasts with focus on the prediction of ramp events
  • Embedding of a probabilistic SCADA-based advection model, especially to consider wake effects
  • Planning and conducting of offshore measurement campaign with the lidar demonstrator as well as a validation of the measurements
  • Implementation and testing of the forecasting methodology in real time as well as its validation and optimization


applied science

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