Julia Latting Perry¹, Jana Wegehöft¹

^{1 Institute} for Ethics and History of Medicine, University Medical Centre Göttingen

As individuals and as a society, we seek to look for traces of the future in the present and the past, in order to interpret them and derive ideas about what lies ahead (Hadolt & Stöckl, 2024). Anticipating future decisions can be particularly important for people at risk of developing a disease, as independent planning can be understood as part of self-determination. The rapid development of new medical technologies for predicting late-onset diseases (e.g. Alzheimer’s disease) poses many challenges to those affected in terms of their visions of the future. Existing healthcare structures at the meso- and macro-levels, as well as the future responsibilities of medical staff, also raise unresolved questions. Consequently, medical ethics faces the methodological challenge of developing ethical assessments and practical recommendations for technologies or practices that do not yet exist or have not yet been implemented.

The scenario methodology offers a structured approach to such future developments, enabling future development prospects for specific time periods to be discussed and evaluated from multiple perspectives in a systematic manner, whilst also identifying possible courses of action. Scenario-based methods are based on a structured analysis of current developments and therefore require a certain degree of plausibility (Spöhrer et al., 2022). In an ethical reflection on technologies, medicine and health, such anticipatory approaches and perspectives can sharpen and theoretically underpin our analyses of the implicit or explicit expectations, visions and practices of planning and preparation (Schicktanz, 2026). At the same time, they allow for reflections on different timeframes and enable a separate examination of individual and societal dimensions.

Using scenario methodology, we aim to discuss future scenarios collaboratively in this interdisciplinary and interactive workshop – taking research approaches in the field of geriatric medicine as an example. The aim is to systematically identify morally relevant aspects, influencing factors and different perspectives in order to develop ethical prerequisites for suitable solutions.

To encourage the exploration of innovative normative considerations, the planned workshop will consist of three parts: a theoretical introduction, an interactive phase in small groups (evaluation of the respective scenarios) and a reflection session.

In the first part (30 minutes), we will summarise approaches to scenario methodology that are well suited to ethical questions relating to gerontological research. We will also present specific, visually presented scenarios from three areas for subsequent discussion, from which participants can choose:

1. The future of ageing within the healthcare system
2. Healthcare for people with dementia
3. Blood-based biomarker tests in Alzheimer’s research

In the second part (40 minutes), group work will take place, during which participants will examine the plausibility of the individual scenarios in terms of best-case and worst-case scenarios, as well as the respective timeframes, settings and/or structures.

In the third part (20 minutes) of the workshop, we will reflect together in a plenary session on the results of the group work, as well as the advantages and challenges of the scenario methodology and its potential combination with other methods for practical application in medical ethics research projects and issues. We aim to discuss together the ethical issues for which the scenario methodology is particularly useful and applicable, and those for which it is less so.

Overall, the workshop is therefore aimed at anyone planning to investigate issues relating to future medical and technological developments and/or who is interested in gaining practical experience of the scenario method. The aim is to raise participants’ awareness of this forward-looking method and to encourage them to continue working with the approach, for example in teaching or in participatory settings.

There are 15–18 places available for the workshop. Participants will receive the scenario materials on the day of the workshop.

References:

Hadolt, B., & Stöckl, A. (Eds.) (2024). Hope and Uncertainty in Health and Medicine: Imagining the Pragmatics of Medical Potential. transcript Verlag. doi.org/10.14361/9783839467

Schicktanz, S. (2026). Anticipation. In: Deppe, S. et al. (Eds.) Handbook of Medicine and Lifespan. Metzler. doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-68418-4_24-1

Spöhrer, K. et al. (2022). General Practice in the Digital Age: Scenarios and Recommendations. Gesundheitswesen, 84(7). doi.org/10.1055/a-1791-0834